Sarah Palin Likely Wouldn't Win Florida Primary, Says Poll Guru
About 32 states seem favorable to Palin, but Florida isn't one of them. The only thing Palin has going for her is that a number of Florida voters are highly concerned with energy and terrorism policy, but the numbers don't add up in the other categories. According to Silver:
Florida's Republican voters, meanwhile, are relatively urban and reasonably well-educated, and my hunch is that Palin will not play well with groups like Cuban and non-Cuban Hispanics and Jewish voters who collectively make up about 15 percent of the state's Republican primary electorate.
Florida might be within Palin's grasp depending on how the dynamics shake out, but it seems it would be in her favor if Florida doesn't again try to push its primary date forward and returns to its traditional, later-in-the-election date.