As Obama Opens 9-Point Lead In Florida, Republicans Claim Polls Are Bogus

Categories: Politicks
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If the Quinnipiac poll released last night is even close to accurate, Mitt Romney is in big trouble in Florida. The survey found Obama with a commanding nine point lead in the Sunshine State -- a huge swing from the last Q-poll before the conventions, which found the two candidates within the margin of error.

But is the poll to be trusted? As results show Romney fading in Florida and other swing states, Republicans have started attacking the pollsters, including a new broadside launched against Quinnipiac this morning.

The Republicans beef? That polls inaccurately use "turnout models" that try to predict the makeup of voters on Election Day and unfairly over-poll Democrats.

Of the voters surveyed in the latest Q-poll, for instance, 36 percent were Democrats, 33 percent were independent and only 27 percent were Republican.

That's "almost malpractice from a polling standpoint," Florida Romney strategist Brett Doster complains to the Tampa Bay Times this morning.

Thing is, Quinnipiac says it doesn't even use "turnout models;" while they weight polls to get an accurate age distribution, the 1,196 voters they polled in Florida were more heavily registered Democrats for a simple reason: Democrats have more registered voters in Florida.

Kyle Kondik, a University of Virginia political scientist, may have gotten to the real bottom of the GOP's complaints: "There's a natural tendency to question the accuracy of polls when you're losing," he tells the Times.

So assuming it's not incurably slanted, what did the Q-poll find?

A whole lotta bad news for the Romney camp. Both Florida and Ohio are favoring Obama 53 to 44 percent, the poll found, while the president also leads Pennsylvania 54 to 42 percent.

In Florida, only 7 percent of voters said they might change their mind by election day, and almost half had unfavorable views of Romney.

The survey also found that those planning to vote for Obama strongly favor him at a 73 percent clip; a similar question of Mitt Romney's voters found only 53 percent felt strongly about his candidacy.

The poll also reinforced the notion that Bill Nelson is poised to destroy Connie Mack at the polls; Quinnipiac found the incumbent with a 53 to 39 percent lead.

Polls should always be served with a side-helping of salt, and there's a lot of campaigning, gaffes and counter-gaffes yet to happen in the next month.

But when the trend across a broad spectrum of surveys all show Mitt Romney fading in Florida, it's starting to look like smart money to bet on the president.

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16 comments
Glenn.61
Glenn.61

All the polls are bogus, despite who is leading, until the election. The ballots are the only poll that counts, and the Socialist-Left is trying to skew that survey anyway they can.

"In a democracy, people get the government they deserve"

Ivan Martinez
Ivan Martinez

Polls are pure nonsense. I answer telephone polls on a regular basis & throw them nonsensical demographic info (sex, race, age, party affiliation etc.) just for shits & giggles. On the last one I was an African-American Jewish Republican female.

Josh Phelps
Josh Phelps

Polls do in fact oversample dems. Oct 1980 Reagan was down 13pts and still unseated Carter with no major developments in the campaign. You know what they say about history......

Andrew Jordan
Andrew Jordan

Can't be. People in Florida are dumb...but not that dumb.

MarkSherwoodNV
MarkSherwoodNV

@140elect so when GDP comes in under 2% you tell yourself that's progress. #Forward

mensrightsrdt
mensrightsrdt

@140elect the tendency is to question everything involved with politics and power.

potogold1
potogold1

@140elect for someone so smart, you don't analyze well...look at the internals, hon.

jacobmathews
jacobmathews

@140elect With such pathetic track record of OBAMA. Either the polls are wrong or the people are just brain dead.

JustinTucker660
JustinTucker660

@140elect Hard to trust that poll when it is skewed Dems heavy.

THunterJ
THunterJ

@140elect Even exit polls are inaccurate.

THunterJ
THunterJ

@140elect Good observation, but then again, which polls have proved accurate in the past?

Tymelessbeauty4
Tymelessbeauty4

@izatrini @miaminewtimes they done start wit the foolishness lmao

Anthonyvop1
Anthonyvop1 topcommenter

Every time I think about people voting for Obama this quote comes to mind.

 

"“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” ― Alexis de Tocqueville

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