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A Brewing Tropical Storm Could Take Aim at South Florida Next Week

Categories: Category 5

via the National Hurricane Center
Good rule of thumb: When a storm system hasn't even morphed into a named tropical storm yet, it's way too early to raid Publix for vodka, er, emergency water supplies, no matter what the TV news is saying this morning.

But if you live in South Florida, it is worth watching a system brewing east of the Lesser Antilles. There's a high chance it turns into a depression in the next five days, and it's definitely headed northwest toward our neck of the woods. Hurricane hunter aircraft are on call to check the system this afternoon.

The system, currently just a tropical wave called 96L, is churning up heavy thunderstorms and winds about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

"Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next day or so," the National Hurricane Center says, as the storm moves northwest around 15 mph.

The storm will probably continue growing today and tomorrow as it chugs toward Hispaniola, with forecasters expecting it to pass over the Dominican Republic and Haiti this Saturday.

That could be good news for everyone north of the island, where mountain ranges have a tendency to tear up building storms like this one.

"[The] rugged terrain would likely disrupt the storm," Dr. Jeff Masters writes on his blog, Weather Underground. "With dry air expected to be in the Caribbean, the moderate levels of wind shear would likely be able to drive the dry air into the circulation of 96L, keeping any development slow."

If the storm survives its Saturday pass over the island, though, it has a decent chance of restrengthening over open water, and most models show it heading toward the Bahamas and South Florida.

"If 96L does develop, it would likely be similar to Tropical Storm Bertha of early August while in the Caribbean," Masters writes, "a disorganized system that struggles against dry air."

In other words: Hold off on that vodka run, but keep an eye on this one over the weekend.

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77 comments
Marky Sammie
Marky Sammie

Floridians talked about nyc, let them get theirs in return

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Jen Paez
Jen Paez

Darn. Hopefully, the model is wrong. Usually is.

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Jesus Crespo
Jesus Crespo

Oh well guess its an excuse to have a hurricane party lol

Mary Andrade
Mary Andrade

Shannon just in time for the Santells to be in town :(

Sally Yaralli
Sally Yaralli

One to follow....\U0001f4a8\U0001f4a6\U0001f4a7

Chris Caplan
Chris Caplan

Run for your lives! It's A tropical Storm!

Nick Pantin
Nick Pantin

An unnamed storm in the Caribbean during hurricane season. So basically nothing new? And the path doesn't even lead it to South Florida. Why is this news?

Franckner Larece
Franckner Larece

Well I will be in Tampa suburb Clearwater, FL. I hope it will spare us.

Eugene Goodrich
Eugene Goodrich

Oh no, not South Florida! Also, what are all those things which look like islands off of South Florida? Surely no vulnerable populations live there, right? Should that be in the headline or something?

Osmin Head Morales
Osmin Head Morales

The only HURRICANE that's going to hit is the one on Labor Day up there in Louisville.......

Tom Morris
Tom Morris

When is that forecast from? As of last night it was already showing a miss. Current computer forecast models as of the 11 AM advisory: Please, Miami New Times, check updated NHC forecast products before posting. #dongzlol

Roxy Camacho
Roxy Camacho

Mevurah We're having a............................

Laurie Ritter
Laurie Ritter

Did it say 'raid Publix for vodka?'.... Wegmans would have none of that..lol

Celine MouMou
Celine MouMou

Carlos Javier Linares Mavarez, Giovanny E Moros S

Garofolo Jovanni
Garofolo Jovanni

Jessica Pereira WTF!!!! lol they always come around that time!

Mootha Gunawan
Mootha Gunawan

Wont hit us guaranteed. Media always blows things out of proportion.

Ana-Maria de la Mata
Ana-Maria de la Mata

I knowww, but it's going to be in the Caribbean on Saturday. Estoy nerbi

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