Tropical Depression Likely to Just Miss South Florida This Weekend

Categories: Category 5

via National Hurricane Center
The system's latest path prediction would just miss South Florida.
Pesky ol' 96L, the awkwardly named system that still needs to organize a bit more before earning the more dignified moniker of Tropical Storm Cristobal, is soaking the Lesser Antilles this morning and turning toward the northwest.

The latest prediction from forecasters as of 8 a.m.: The storm will become a depression this weekend, steer toward South Florida, but probably miss nailing Miami thanks to a trough of low pressure. The system could still make for a sloppy, wet time in the neighborhood, though.

The system is still pretty disorganized this morning and will likely get torn up further by mountain ranges in Hispaniola when it rolls over the island tonight.

But once it's back over open water, forecasters expect the storm to find enough juice to rebuild into a depression.

"Environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday," the National Hurricane Center says, "and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the weekend or by early next week."

What are the chances it steers a bit west and nails Florida instead? A low-pressure system makes that look unlikely, Dr. Jeff Masters over at Weather Underground writes.

"A trough of low pressure is expected to be over the U.S. East Coast early next week, and the GFS and European models predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn 96L north and then northeast, keeping the storm away from the Southeast U.S. coast," Masters writes.

That doesn't mean Miami should quit watching the storm soon to be named Cristobal, though.

"However, long-range model forecasts of disturbances that haven't formed into a tropical depression yet are unreliable," Masters writes, "and we should not be confident that 96L will miss the mainland U.S. yet."

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34 comments
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Luiza Mariano
Luiza Mariano

Gabi Lorenzetti ai gabiii so pq vc disse!! Talvez tenha um furacao hahahah credooo

Jackie Fernicola
Jackie Fernicola

Jeremy Feldman might not be a bad thing... I could use an extra day off!! \U0001f62c

James G. Camp
James G. Camp

Just enough to cool it down and make it more pleasant ?

Andy Cohn
Andy Cohn

Did you make your own cone? None of the forecast have it going anywhere near us now. When did Miami New Times become Fox?

Alina Medina
Alina Medina

Danny Melisa Ponce looks like we dodged another bullet there! i dont want to see the storm that DOES end up coming!

Dave Basora
Dave Basora

Cary Gonzalez, I was here when hurricane Andrew took a last minute dip and instead of it going to the dade/broward line, my area became ground zero. A little finger crossing never hurt

Cary Gonzalez
Cary Gonzalez

NT you must have been napping the las 24 hours. Every single model has it drifting away for Florida. No finger crossing needed.

Dave Basora
Dave Basora

Rain won't cool things down, just make it steamy

Paul Calderon
Paul Calderon

Faye Al , Ruel James Was talking maaaaaaaad shit last night. Not even gonna hit us. lol

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